MANILA, Philippines – Leon (Kong-rey) intensified from a severe tropical storm into a typhoon on Tuesday morning, October 29, while over the waters east of Cagayan province.
Leon now has maximum sustained winds of 130 kilometers per hour from the previous 110 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a briefing past 11 am on Tuesday. Its gustiness is now up to 160 km/h from 135 km/h.
As of 10 am on Tuesday, Leon was located 555 kilometers east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan. It continues to move west northwest at only 10 km/h.
PAGASA expects the typhoon to keep moving generally west northwest on Tuesday, then turn northwest on Wednesday, October 30, until it makes landfall along Taiwan’s eastern coast on Thursday afternoon or evening, October 31. Taiwan is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
But PAGASA is not ruling out landfall for Leon in the Philippines’ northernmost province of Batanes if its track shifts further westward or nearer the country’s landmass. The typhoon will be closest to Batanes between early morning and noon of Thursday.
The weather bureau also maintained that Leon “is expected to rapidly intensify throughout its passage over the Philippine Sea up to until before landfall over Taiwan.”
“Leon will likely be at or near its peak intensity during its closest point of approach to Batanes,” PAGASA also said. “Furthermore, there is an increasing chance that Leon will reach super typhoon category.”
A super typhoon has maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h or above.
In an updated rainfall advisory issued at 11 am on Tuesday, PAGASA upgraded the rain in Isabela to heavy to intense, from moderate to heavy. Overall, Batanes and Cagayan are still expected to receive the most rain.
Tuesday noon, October 29, to Wednesday noon, October 30
- Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 millimeters): Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Isabela, Occidental Mindoro, Antique
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Sur, Abra, Kalinga, Calamian Islands, Romblon, Negros Occidental, Aklan
Wednesday noon, October 30, to Thursday noon, October 31
- Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Isabela, Calamian Islands, Occidental Mindoro, Antique
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Sur, Abra, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, Romblon, Aklan
Thursday noon, October 31, to Friday noon, November 1
- Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): mainland Cagayan, Calamian Islands, Occidental Mindoro
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, Romblon, Antique
Meanwhile, Signal No. 2 has been raised due to Leon for the first time, covering parts of the Cagayan Valley region. But there are no more areas in the Visayas under a tropical cyclone wind signal, as winds from the typhoon are no longer reaching Eastern Visayas.
Below are the areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 11 am on Tuesday.
Signal No. 2
Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property
- Batanes
- Babuyan Islands
- eastern part of mainland Cagayan (Gattaran, Baggao, Lal-lo, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Gonzaga, Santa Ana, Peñablanca)
- northeastern part of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan, Maconacon)
Signal No. 1
Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property
- rest of mainland Cagayan
- rest of Isabela
- Quirino
- Nueva Vizcaya
- Apayao
- Kalinga
- Abra
- Mountain Province
- Ifugao
- Benguet
- Ilocos Norte
- Ilocos Sur
- La Union
- Aurora
- northern part of Quezon including Polillo Islands (General Nakar, Infanta, Real)
- Camarines Norte
- eastern part of Camarines Sur (Tinambac, Siruma, Goa, Lagonoy, San Jose, Garchitorena, Caramoan, Presentacion, Tigaon, Calabanga, Saglay)
- Catanduanes
- eastern part of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, Bacacay, Tabaco City, Tiwi, Malilipot, Malinao, Santo Domingo, Manito)
- northeastern part of Sorsogon (Prieto Diaz, Sorsogon City, Gubat)
The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Leon is either Signal No. 3 or 4, “especially in Batanes and Babuyan Islands.” But PAGASA is not ruling out the raising of Signal No. 5 if Leon reaches super typhoon status.
“The wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the typhoon is bringing strong to gale-force gusts to localities outside wind signal areas, too:
Tuesday, October 29
- Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Camiguin
Wednesday, October 30
- Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, most of Visayas, Dinagat Islands
Thursday, October 31
- Aurora, Quezon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Dinagat Islands
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In the next 24 hours, here are the expected sea conditions:
Up to very rough or high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)
- Seaboards of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and northeastern mainland Cagayan – waves up to 10 meters high
- Remaining eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan – waves up to 8 meters high
- Seaboards of Isabela; remaining northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan – waves up to 7 meters high
- Northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte – waves up to 6 meters high
- Seaboard of northern Aurora; northern seaboard of Catanduanes – waves up to 4.5 meters high
Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)
- Remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; seaboard of Camarines Norte; northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; eastern seaboard of Catanduanes – waves up to 4 meters high
- Seaboard of Ilocos Sur; eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar – waves up to 3.5 meters high
- Eastern seaboard of mainland Quezon, Camarines Sur, Eastern Samar, and Dinagat Islands; remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region – waves up to 3 meters high
Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)
- Seaboards of Zambales, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Davao Oriental, and Kalayaan Islands – waves up to 2.5 meters high
- Remaining seaboards of Luzon and Visayas; northern seaboard of Mindanao – waves up to 2 meters high
After crossing Taiwan, Leon is projected to turn north or north northeast over the Taiwan Strait toward the East China Sea and leave PAR on Thursday evening or early Friday morning, November 1.
PAGASA said another landfall in mainland China is not being ruled out.
Leon is the Philippines’ 12th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the second for October. – Rappler.com