The arrest and detention of former president Rodrigo Duterte by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague, Netherlands, has become a battle for survival for this “soft” Bonapartist — an “outsider” who centralized power using populism and the state’s police-military apparatus.
Unlike Napoleon, Duterte did not create a new ruling structure; he co-opted elite networks instead (the Marcoses, former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the oligarchs). His brand of populism attracted people but consolidated the power of political dynasties. Duterte never rejected neoliberalism but in fact embraced it.
Can the Duterte brand survive this crisis?
Duterte is adept in manipulating people and narratives. As President, he institutionalized disinformation by using massive disinformation networks to shape public opinion, demonized the mass media, and legitimized vloggers by appointing them in government. These networks have now become echo chambers without state support.
He used the narrative of imperial Manila to consolidate Mindanao, and he was the first President to build a political movement largely through social media. His ‘“Tatay Digong” image resonated affectionately with overseas Filipinos who left their families behind in search of greener pastures but anxious about their safety. Don’t worry, Tatay Digong will care for them. But with him no longer in power, affections won’t last long.
He leveraged social media and made it a platform to launch attacks on critics and journalists. He used Congress to dismantle ABS-CBN to control the flow of information. He instilled fear with his war on drugs, and silenced the opposition by killing or putting them in jail with trumped-up charges. Now in jail and given due process, his lies will be unmasked.
He stands accused of ordering the murder of thousands of Filipinos in the name of his grand narrative of saving the Filipino family from illegal drugs. His trial and conviction is part of a transitional justice process that Filipinos must go through. It’s justice for the victims of extrajudicial killings in Davao City and during his presidency from 2016-2022.
Emasculating BARMM
Likewise, instead of correcting historical injustices against the Bangsamoro, Duterte reduced Marawi to rubble, which he did in secret collaboration with extremist Khawarij groups — because he had wanted Marawi turned into a military base that he inaugurated in 2018. He used his Maranaw bloodline to justify razing to the ground an Islamic city.
Duterte emasculated the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) law by having Congress took out the Bangsamoro police and its jurisdiction over municipal waters, thus Lake Lanao which provides hydroelectric power is still held by the central government. He never wanted to empower BARMM as stipulated in the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro signed in 2012 under Pres. Benigno Aquino III.
For workers, Duterte vetoed the anti-ENDO law passed by Congress to end contractualization, saying it’s bad for companies. He phased out jeepneys and the livelihood of thousands in the guise of modernization, yet gave new franchises to friends and cronies. He jailed a 72-year old jeepney driver who protested, saying age did not matter. Now at 79 years old, it is Duterte who is in jail.
Duterte eventually junked federalism because his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, had opposed it. Consequently, he drifted towards China and Zionist Israel. He even hosted the Israeli Mossad in Davao City in 2020 after his and his daughter’s official trip to Tel Aviv to pledge support to Benjamin Netanyahu in 2018. He declared martial law in Mindanao to silence critics and consolidate the elites of Mindanao.
His alliance with the Left early in his presidency, as well as his pivot to China and anti-oligarch, anti-US/West rhetoric, provided him a Bonapartist strongman image that was a stark contrast to past Filipino leaders who were bleeding-heart neo-liberals. Yet, Duterte embraced neoliberalism fully and never understood it’s the root of poverty.
Test for ICC
Now in The Hague, Duterte will try to make his trial a memorialization of his strongman legacy that he wants to pass on to Sara. But all this will be unmasked in the trial, which is a global test case of democracy in the ICC’s fight against authoritarianism and strongman rule.
The ICC is a European institution which is also battling for its survival over the likes of Donald Trump in the US, Vladimir Putin in Russia, and Israel’s Netanyahu. Duterte could be its “soft” test case. China can just whimper; it doesn’t want to antagonize Europe as it plans to build a friendly image at a time when the US-Europe alliance had become fragile.
The impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, the 2025 elections, and the economy are critical junctures that have to be maneuvered by President Marcos to put a decisive end to Duterte.
For the oligarchs and elites, Duterte has become too unwieldy and unpredictable and thus dispensable. In times of global recession and crisis, it’s better for them to give Marcos stability.
Ultimately, Duterte’s dalliance with the elites, political dynasts, and the military has to end.
Goodbye, Duterte. – Rappler.com
Tom Villarin is a lecturer in political science at the Ateneo de Manila University and chairperson of the Mindanao Commission, Akbayan Party.