MANILA, Philippines — More than a week after United States President Donald Trump Jr. launched a global trade war through what he has insisted are “reciprocal tariffs,” Southeast Asia’s economic managers finally spoke out — not to condemn the Western superpower, but to signal a desire to “engage in a frank and constructive dialogue” over trade issues. 

“Open communication and collaboration will be crucial to ensuring a balanced and sustainable relationship. In that spirit, ASEAN commits to not impose any retaliatory measures in response to the US tariffs,” read a joint statement by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economic ministers, following a virtual meeting on April 10. 

The statement was issued just after the US President paused most of the “reciprocal tariffs” as he seemed to buckle over chaos in the financial market and an “unsettling surge in US government bond yields that appeared to catch Trump’s attention,” according to Reuters. 

Before the pause, countries from the bloc would have seen tariffs that ran up to 49% and 48% for Cambodia and Laos. The Philippines and Singapore were slapped with the lowest rates, based on the Trump administration’s “calculations” — 17% for Manila, and the baseline 10% global tariff for the island city-state Singapore.   

Even as the bloc made explicit that it would not seek a trade war, it laid out all its cards on the table in its statement: the Western superpower’s “significant role in fostering ASEAN-centered regional architecture that promotes peace, stability, economic growth”; the bloc as the US’s fifth largest trading partner; the US as ASEAN’s second-largest trading partner and largest foreign direct investment source; uncertainty, especially for micro, small, and medium enterprises; and disruptions of “regional and global trade and investment flows, as well as supply chains,” among others. 

Frederick D. Go, Marcos’ special assistant for investment and economic affairs, announced through Palace press officer Undersecretary Clarissa Castro on Monday, April 14, that “talks and negotiations, especially with ASEAN countries” were still ongoing. 

Castro quoted Go as saying that ASEAN members are aiming for a “joint diplomatic outreach [and] harmonized messaging.” “Ito iyong, kumbaga ay ini-emphasize iyong diplomatic engagement rather [than] retaliation, at salitang galing po kay Secretary Go ay cooperation not confrontation (Secretary Go emphasizes the need for diplomatic engagement rather retaliation, cooperation and not confrontation).” 

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The ASEAN Way, it seems, prevails — even in a situation as dire as the US President seeking an upheaval of the world’s trade and economic order. Consensus is key in the bloc, after all — a promise that can work both ways when you’re trying to seek a solution that benefits all 10 member states, whose interests and relationship with the US and its superpower rival China, vary as much as the reciprocal rates the US has imposed. 

There’s talk of the bloc, led by chair Malaysia, already trying to set a face-to-face dialogue with Washington DC. Will it come in the form of a leaders meeting? Or at the very least, a delegation led by different ministers. 

One thing’s for sure — Go is set to go stateside, by May, to negotiate the 17% tariff on Manila. 

Xi’s Southeast Asia sojourn 

But as the bloc tries to come up with plan and message that works for all in dealing with a volatile Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping is not wasting time in reaching out to members of the bloc through a three-city hop that’ll bring him to Vietnam (among the highest Trump tariff rates, at 46% before the pause), Malaysia (ASEAN chair), and Cambodia (the highest of all rates, at 49%). 

This is all happening, of course, as Beijing hits back at the trade war following the imposition of a 145% US tariff. Ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement, China’s east Asian neighbors South Korea and Japan had promised to boost trade cooperation — their first economic dialogue in over five years. 

There’s a less charitable read of Xi’s tour — an effort not only to rally together fellow Asian nations, but to drive further existing geopolitical wedges between members of the bloc. 

That China is positioning itself as a leader in the region — a voice of reason, even — is nothing new. It would be a laughable idea, given Manila and other ASEAN member states’ years of enduring Chinese harassment in the South China Sea. 

But it becomes just a little easier to imagine — and maybe accept — when you’ve a United States that’s not only rewriting the rules it once helped establish, but also changing its mid-draft. 

Ahead of “Liberation Day,” there’d already been worries among people in ASEAN over tensions, especially of the economic kind, between “major powers.” 

According to the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s State of Southeast Asia 2025 Survey Report, the “intensifying economic tensions between major powers” was ranked the third top “challenge” facing the region. Only climate change and extreme weather events, as well as unemployment and economic recession, surpassed economic tensions as a top challenge. 

In the realm of geopolitics, “aggressive behavior in the South China Sea,” ranked the highest concern of 51.6% of respondents, a significant rise from the 2024 survey that indicated over 39.9% of respondents thought of it as a top concern. 

Ranked third as a top concern in the region? “New US leadership,” at 46.9%. 

Finally, a ‘milestone’

But not everything is fraught when you’re talking about ASEAN and how it interacts with both the major and superpowers. On Monday, April 14, the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) announced that Manila hosted another round of talks for the long-aspired Code of Conduct (COC) on the South China Sea between ASEAN and China. 

For the first time in decades, a “milestone” issue was discussed — on how the proposed COC would relate to the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea or the DOC.  

In layman’s terms that means a discussion on whether ASEAN and China would start from scratch in crafting the COC, or whether it would build on the existing DOC, and if so, how. 

There are two other “milestone” issues in discussions — the scope or coverage of the code (literally, how is the South China Sea defined) and if the code is legally binding or not. 

The latter, while presumably the desired outcome of both ASEAN and China, will depend on the text of whatever form the COC will take — should it ever finally reach that phase. 

There is an aspiration for the COC to finally conclude in 2026, or the same year Manila is chair of ASEAN. Until documents are signed and agreements are ratified, diplomats are wont to speak with certainty when it comes to deadlines — especially when you’re talking about a code that’s been under negotiation for over two decades. 

But who knows, right? And would it not be a feat if the Philippines — the country that took China to court — is also host when a COC on the South China Sea is finally signed? 

Looking inwards, over a third (35%) of respondents in the State of Southeast Asia 2025 Survey thought that “ASEAN is slow and ineffective, and thus cannot cope with fluid political and economic developments, and is becoming irrelevant in the new world order.” 

The second top concern was even more telling — 29.8% said “ASEAN is becoming an arena of major power competition and its member states may become major power proxies.”

Slow and steady — with emphasis on steady — has always been both the boon and bane for ASEAN, a region that’s been touted to be full of hope and potential. 

When the seas are especially choppy, and the journey ahead uncertain, will Southeast Asians benefit from a bloc that typically finds it hard to escape its own inertia? – Rappler.com