MANILA, Philippines – Ofel (Usagi) was downgraded from a super typhoon to a typhoon before it made landfall in Baggao, Cagayan, at 1:30 pm on Thursday, November 14.

Ofel’s maximum sustained winds eased from 185 kilometers per hour to 175 km/h, but it remains a powerful tropical cyclone. Its gustiness, in contrast, went up to 240 km/h from 230 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) explained in a bulletin past 2 pm on Thursday that Ofel has started weakening “due to increasing interaction with the landmass of Luzon.”

“It will continue to weaken throughout the forecast period due to frictional effects of land, as well as the increasingly unfavorable environment over the Luzon Strait and the sea east of Taiwan,” added PAGASA.

Ofel is currently moving west northwest at 20 km/h, slightly faster than its previous speed of 15 km/h.

It will continue crossing the northeastern part of mainland Luzon on Thursday afternoon, then pass close to or make another landfall in Babuyan Islands on Thursday evening.

Afterwards, it may turn north on Friday, November 15, over the sea west of Batanes, then northeast over the sea east of Taiwan during the weekend. Taiwan is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

There are no more areas under Signal No. 5 since Ofel was downgraded to a typhoon. Here is the updated list of areas where tropical cyclone wind signals are in effect:

Signal No. 4

Typhoon-force winds (118 to 184 km/h), significant to severe threat to life and property

• Babuyan Islands
• northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan (Santa Teresita, Ballesteros, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Lal-lo, Allacapan, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Gonzaga, Santa Ana)
• northeastern part of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan)

Signal No. 3

Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property

• Batanes
• rest of Cagayan
• northern, central, and eastern parts of Isabela (San Pablo, Delfin Albano, Ilagan City, Tumauini, Cabagan, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, San Mariano, Palanan)
• northern part of Apayao (Flora, Santa Marcela, Luna, Pudtol, Calanasan, Kabugao)
• northern part of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams, Dumalneg)

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• western and southern parts of Isabela (Quezon, Quirino, Mallig, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, Cauayan City, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Gamu, Burgos, Reina Mercedes, Luna, Roxas, Angadanan, Alicia, San Guillermo, Echague, Jones, San Agustin, San Mateo, San Isidro, Dinapigue)
• rest of Apayao
• Kalinga
• northeastern part of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong, Lagayan, San Juan, Lagangilang, Licuan-Baay, Daguioman)
• eastern part of Mountain Province (Paracelis)
• eastern part of Ifugao (Alfonso Lista)
• rest of Ilocos Norte

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• rest of Isabela
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• rest of Mountain Province
• rest of Ifugao
• rest of Abra
• northern part of Benguet (Bokod, Mankayan, Kapangan, Atok, Kabayan, Kibungan, Bakun, Buguias, Tublay)
• Ilocos Sur
• northern part of La Union (Luna, Sudipen, Bangar, Santol, San Gabriel, Bagulin, Bacnotan, Balaoan, San Juan)
• northern part of Aurora (Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Baler, Dilasag, Maria Aurora)

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Ofel will continue to dump rain in Northern Luzon, especially in the next 24 hours. Floods and landslides remain likely.

Thursday afternoon, November 14, to Friday afternoon, November 15

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 millimeters): Cagayan, Isabela
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Quirino, Aurora
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Abra, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya

Friday afternoon, November 15, to Saturday afternoon, November 16

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Babuyan Islands

In the next 48 hours, there is now a high risk of “life-threatening” storm surges “with peak heights exceeding 3 meters” in Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and northern Aurora.

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For sea conditions in the next 24 hours, PAGASA maintained the following outlook:

Up to very rough or high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Seaboard of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands – waves up to 12 meters high
• Seaboards of Isabela and Batanes – waves up to 8 meters high
• Northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte – waves up to 6 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Seaboard of northern Aurora – waves up to 4 meters high
• Remaining seaboards of Aurora and Ilocos Norte; seaboard of northern mainland Quezon; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Seaboards of Camarines Norte and Ilocos Sur; northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Eastern seaboard of mainland Quezon, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar; remaining seaboard of Catanduanes; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar – waves up to 2 meters high

Ofel is the Philippines’ 15th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the third for November, after Marce (Yinxing) and Nika (Toraji), which both peaked as typhoons and pummeled Northern Luzon.

Aside from Ofel, PAGASA continues to monitor Tropical Storm Man-yi, which is seen to enter PAR on Thursday evening.

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– Rappler.com